Omicron: Lockdown 4? – Will S
It has plastered our newsfeeds, it has been a talking point with everyone you meet – this is Omicron: the return of the lockdown. Or is it? That is the quite literal trillion dollar question (in the last 5 days just shy of that has been wiped off the largest market in the world). The truth is, that unfortunately we do not know. This new variant could spell a return to lockdown and dreaded online lessons, but the chances of this happening are relatively small. We do not have all the data yet but the indications from South Africa (where omicron is believed to originate from) have been relatively positive. Unlike lesser media outlets, the bubble does not scaremonger and so if your looking for the TL;DR of this article, chances are we will be mostly fine.
The reasons for why this new variant is of worry are quite complex on a scientific level, but actually not that difficult to understand. Essentially, you can think of the covid-19 genome as just over 29,000 letters, and the genome has mutated in 45-52 places meaning that 45-52 are now different. So what’s the big deal… so what if less than 0.2% of the RNA (like DNA but smaller) has changed? This is the part that is complex and I won’t explain it here (I do not know myself), but relatively speaking other variants of concern had only a few changes e.g. Delta which has only 23 mutated genes but is more than twice as transmissible. This hopefully shows to you that even tiny changes can have massive implications and so there is the possibility that this new variant is more transmissible and could also be more deadly.
The real concern are changes to the spike protein on the exterior of the virus, of which there are 32. It is the shape of these proteins that allow the vaccine to work against the virus, and they can be thought of as keys to locks, the vaccine acting as a lock but only working properly with the correct key. If the key changes shape, the lock will no longer fit properly with it, and what this means is the vaccine works less efficiently. If the vaccine is working less efficiently or not as well, we will find that infections will increase and hospitalisations and deaths too, and we will be back in stop the NHS from being overwhelmed mode. Whilst the vaccines can be changed with relative ease, it would take around 6 months for them to be ready to go into people’s arms, at which point we will see mass vaccination again which would be months more.
This all seems like very scary stuff, however these things are all chances. The vaccine may not necessarily work less well on the omicron variant, and there is a strong chance that the booster jabs being rolled out now will provide further protection. The pharmaceutical companies have said that they will know in a little over three weeks, and until then there is little we can do other than hope for a restriction free Christmas. Whilst we wait though, there is something for us to think about: should vaccinations be mandatory for all those without good medical reason to not have them?
It is thought that had it not been for lack of people getting vaccinated, we may have never seen this new variant as COVID would slowly die out due to lack of available vectors. Perhaps if we all go into a lockdown again this would have to be considered again, but my personal opinion is that no, people should not be forced into their vaccine. I think that refusing a vaccine is a person’s right, however should they refuse they are quite selfish and should be to an extent blamed. If these people feel so strongly that they should not have the vaccine that they are willing to risk not only their lives but everyone else’s then they should realise it is possibly because of them that we are still suffering from covid. This could be considered controversial, but I would go further to say that these people should even possibly refused state healthcare, should they become ill with COVID. After all, these people refused to take their medicine before, so why should they get it now? Also, if these people weren’t in hospital beds then the NHS could begin dealing with the 5 million people awaiting treatment – cancer patients that cannot be in a recovery bed because someone that refused a jab in the arm is there instead. I think that state healthcare should be conditional, the first condition being you take preventative treatment such as the vaccine, and if you don’t want it then you reject state healthcare for that medical issue, should you contract it.
This is just my opinion, and if you disagree, you disagree, but I would say to you that should we be in another lockdown because our hospitals are overwhelmed with unvaccinated covid patients, would you not wish those people had just had a jab in the arm?
WS
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