An update on Brexit (if you still care) – Editor
There is a problem with Brexit that is larger than ideological disagreement: it’s such an interminable faff. While the simplistic nature of a YES/NO referendum may have implied that leaving the EU would be mere formality, the reality has been quite different.
Where are we now and what is the way ahead?
The situation remains precarious, contentious and unclear, even at this late stage. Theresa May has managed to clear the deal she negotiated with the EU with her cabinet (one or two resignations notwithstanding); she now faces the bigger task of getting it through Parliament. If she does so, Brexit will proceed as defined by the 600 page proposal May has drawn up with the EU. If she doesn’t – and that would appear likely at present – a sort of ‘Brexit Pandora’s Box’ is opened up.
Why is May’s deal likely to fail?
This is a ‘Soft Brexit’, failing to appease the Eurosceptics who drove the leave campaign. However, the proposal also falls short of establishing a clear and defined trading relationship with the EU in the long term, so is also unpopular with Europhiles who would prefer to remain a member of the single market and customs union. May insists that elements of ‘sovereignty’ (a state’s right to self-government and an important concern for many during the referendum) will return to the UK, but doubters claim her deal sees the UK remain tightly under the control of the ECJ (European Court of Justice which rules on many aspects of trade, movement and other international regulation), while failing to guarantee national autonomy over fishing territories and agricultural policy (sounds dull, but economically – and sentimentally – very important). A major bone of contention is that the current proposal is extremely tentative in nature; if various trading and political arrangements aren’t finalised by a certain date, we would revert to a ‘backstop’ arrangement.
What is a ‘backstop’?
In baseball terms, it’s the person who squats behind the bat with a cage on their face. In political terms, it’s a safety net. The Brexit backstop arrangement would see the UK’s trading and customs arrangements defined by EU officials on a medium term basis. However, if such a dynamic came into force, the UK could only leave a customs union with the EU with the approval of the EU. In other words, our fate would not be in the hands of UK politicians. In a sense, Brexit would never have happened. That’s why Jacob Rees-Mogg has thrown his monocle out of the pram.
What happens if May’s deal is voted down?
Any number of things could happen. May would almost certainly be forced to resign as leader. Depending on the party-political fallout, a second deal could be negotiated by a Tory successor and taken back to Parliament for approval. Alternatively, some hard Brexiters might assume control and try to guide us out of Europe with no deal. This is regarded as economically reckless (for instance, the Governor of the Bank England predicts that such a situation could result in a 30% hit to house prices). It is also possible a general election could ensue, in which case, if Labour were formally to adopt a second referendum – or ‘People’s Vote’ – in their manifesto, it is possible that Brexit could be averted, though it is equally likely that the electorate would simply be asked to approve a preferred form of Brexit rather than be asked the same ‘In/Out’ question as they were asked in June 2016.
Key players: Who wants what?
May – Her deal to get through.
Corbyn – Unclear. To honour the referendum; to avert a hard Brexit; to implement a Brexit which protects UK workers.
Hammond (Chancellor) – Quietly, I suspect he’d favour a people’s vote, even though he nominally supports the PM’s plan.
Starmer (Shadow Brexit-secretary) – A people’s vote followed by remaining.
Boris Johnson – A renegotiation with the EU led by a true leave advocate. His priorities may be viewed as unworkable by the EU.
Rees-Mogg – A no-deal Brexit (I suspect).
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